Fundamentals Improvement May Drive Iron Ore Prices to Rebound Slightly [SMM Commentary]

Published: Mar 11, 2025 16:48

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Today, iron ore futures opened lower but closed higher, with the most-traded I2505 contract finally settling at 774.5, down 0.06% for the day. Traders showed moderate enthusiasm for selling; steel mills purchased as needed, with limited inquiries; and the market transaction atmosphere remained sluggish. Mainstream transaction prices were stable compared to yesterday. This week, the impact from blast furnace maintenance tracked by SMM was 1.5882 million mt, down 25,600 mt WoW. Pig iron production is expected to increase slightly, while next week's estimated impact from blast furnace maintenance is 138.74, down 200,800 mt WoW. Pig iron production has been growing continuously, with an expanding growth rate, providing support for ore prices. However, macro policy sentiment remains pessimistic, posing significant resistance to upward movement in ore prices. Attention should be paid to end-use demand; if the data performs well, it could drive a slight rebound in iron ore prices.

Today, DCE iron ore futures opened lower but closed higher, with the most-traded I2505 contract settling at 774.5 yuan/mt, down 0.06% for the day. Traders showed moderate enthusiasm for selling; steel mills purchased as needed, with limited inquiries; and the market transaction atmosphere was sluggish. In Shandong, the mainstream transaction prices of PB fines were around 775 yuan/mt, basically stable compared to yesterday; in Tangshan, PB fines transaction prices were around 780-785 yuan/mt, also stable compared to yesterday. This week, the impact from blast furnace maintenance tracked by SMM was 1.5882 million mt, down 25,600 mt WoW. Pig iron production is expected to increase slightly, with next week's estimated impact from blast furnace maintenance at 138.74, down 200,800 mt WoW. Pig iron production has been growing continuously, with an expanding growth rate, providing support for ore prices. However, macro sentiment remains pessimistic, posing significant resistance to upward movement in ore prices. Attention should be paid to end-use demand; if the data performs well, it could drive a slight rebound in iron ore prices.

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